WHY AMERICAN & ETHIOPIAN INTERESTS CONFLICT ON SOMALIA

COMMENTARY:

Ogaden Online Editorial Board

January 15, 2002

A look at recent headlines may lead you to believe that Ethiopia's strategic interests in Somalia coincide exactly with US wishes for the war torn country. However, closer observation of the political dynamics of Ethiopia's interference in the internal affairs of Somalia dictates otherwise. Since the collapse of the Somali Government in 1991, Ethiopia has on more than one occasion sent troops into the Somali Republic. Ethiopia's reaction when confronted with its violation of Somali sovereignty has been either that they are pursuing of Al-Itihaad or a flat denial that there are Ethiopian troops in Somalia altogether. Whatever the response from Addis Ababa, the world attention turning to the Horn of Africa on the suspicion that there are terrorist groups operating out of Somalia may uncover that Ethiopia's activities fly in the face of US interests in Somalia.

Ethiopia has a very simple objective in Somalia, it is to ensure that no government of national unity is formed and that terrorist groups linked to Al-Qaeda continue to be rumored to be operating from Somalia.

For Ethiopia, this ensures that they do not face a potential threat from neighboring Somalia which has on more than one occasion entered into an all out war with Ethiopia. A continued perceived threat from terrorists also ensures that Ethiopia continues to have a pretext to violate Somali sovereignty at will.

Despite it's statements to the contrary, Ethiopia gains much from the status quo in Somalia. It is therefore of no surprise that they have linked up with the only other group that gain from the status quo, the warlords.

The United States on the other hand has a completely different objective. It is quite simply to prevent Somalia from being an unwilling host to terrorist linked to Al-Qaeda. To pursue that objective, the United States is handicapped by the fact that governmental authority is limited to on portions of the country. As such there is no one to deal with. The Warlords can hardly serve as the 'Northern Alliance' of Somalia given the fact that wherever they go, Ethiopian troops are sure to follow. After all, wasn't it militias loyal to Warlords who dragged dead US rangers through the streets of Mogadishu.?

So then where exactly to the interests of Ethiopia and the United States Conflict ?

The answer is a simple as the fact that the United States has everything to gain from the formation of a broad based all inclusive government and a stable Somalia while Ethiopia, at least in the mind of the Melez Zenaawi government, has everything to lose from seeing that outcome.

In so much as this is true, we are left with the conclusion that increased scrutiny of Somalia will reveal that not only does Ethiopian arming of warlords and sabotaging of every attempt at reconciliation handicap prospects for peace in Somalia, but that it actually flies in the face of global efforts to squash terror wherever it manifests itself.

What if Pakistan had continued to support the Taliban ? Would that not have presented an obstacle to the US bringing to justice Al-Qaeda operatives roaming the countryside. At the very least, it would have strengthened the will of Al-Qaeda to fight. Maybe the type of pressure that should be applied on the Warlords is exactly the opposite of what they are now getting from Addis Ababa.

The world should take a hard look at Somalia and note that all forces still willing to fight the TNG, terrorize civilians or in some way shape or form, use violence as a means of promoting their political objectives in Somalia are direct recipients of Ethiopian assistance.

How would Somalia look today without Ethiopian support for Warlords ?

Odds are that the political and security landscape would be more to the liking of the United States than it is now. An old saying goes "Beware of strangers bearing gifts". For the United States, Ethiopia's gifts of exaggerated intelligence and over eagerness to engage in military operations in Somalia should be viewed with a health dose of skepticism.

Those familiar with Somali society can easily determine that clan loyalties far outweigh any potential appeal of religious extremism. As such, organizations such as Al-Qaeda can function only if there is chaos in Somalia. The return of law and order to Somalia is the draining of the swamp that we hear so much about from Pentagon officials.

The question is, who is preventing the alleged swamp from being drained in Somalia? Once we recognize that it is Ethiopia, will recognition come that Ethiopia's activities ensure the continuation of a potentially hospitable environment to an organization that represents a clear and present danger to the United States and indeed the world.

If the world wants to prevent Al-Qaeda from taking roots in Somalia, they should put into check Ethiopia who's fueling of conflict and chaos represent nothing less than an invitation card to Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups

Ogaden Online Editorial Board

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