Eritrea: An embattled state of mind
27 April 2005
Hopelessly poor, locked
into a siege mentality, and ruled in a ruthless manner, Eritrea holds few
hopeful prospects for 2005. President Issayas Afewerki appears to be defiant as
he carved out his stark vision of a future of basic survival and self-reliance without
making concession over the border demarcation with Ethiopia.
As a consequence, his government will continue to crack down on opponents and
detain critics, justifying such measures on the fact that there are still
tensions with neighbouring Ethiopia and Sudan. The government’s damaged
relations with international organizations- notably the UN, the AU and Western
donors- need repair. Political and economic conditions are deteriorating
rapidly, and increasing numbers of Eritreans seek refuge in other countries.
The human crisis in Eritrea has given rise to warning of famine in the year
ahead. Acute malnutrition rates are noted in several parts of the country.
Harvests have been poor, food prices have soared and the country has suffered
an extreme shortage of fuel after world oil prices rose in 2003. Even drinking
water is in short supply across the country, including the capital Asmara.
Pressure from neighbours Ethiopia Sudan and Yemen may not be enough to force
the government to change its stance towards them. The government’s political
repression puts it beyond the pale of sustained support from donor governments,
although humanitarian needs are closely monitored.
Eritrea remains cut off from medium-term donor credit and so depends vitally on
a combination of humanitarian assistance and remittance of Eritreans living
abroad. Exports can earn barely $20 million a year, compared with an import
bill which in recent years has exceeded $600 million. There are no mineral
exports. In 2004, foreign companies were required by the government to cease
their prospective activities.
Although the government’s military expenditure have depleted foreign-exchange
reserves, there are no signs as yet of cuts in the 350,000 armed forces.
Tensions along the separation line with Ethiopia have occasionally erupted into
violence or with Eritrean threat to the small UN peacekeeping force.
Eritrea is outraged that Ethiopia has failed to accept the Boundary
Commission’s judgment that the town of Badme should be given to Eritrea. The
government stepped up its rhetoric against both Ethiopia and the UN in 2004, at
one point prompting the UN to issue an ultimatum that its peacekeepers should
no longer be prevented from doing their work.
The confrontation with Ethiopia reflects a deep fracture in the former alliance
between the rebel movements that freed both countries from the grip of
Ethiopia’s old dicatorship, Mengistu Hailemariam. The alliance broke up, as it
was forged, in the battle field, and President Issayas’s determination to keep
Ethiopia’s prime minister on his toes has led to his government into providing
sporadic support for rebels of the Oromo Liberation Front, although this has
seen no success.
Eritrea has decisively split with Sudan, formerly an important trading partner:
each government accuses the other of wanting to overthrow it. Since 2002, when
Sudan accused Eritrea of supporting rebels, the common border has remained
closed to all trade and traffic.
Freedom of speech has almost been outlawed. Eritrean editors and journalist are
commonly detained without trial or announcement. Amnesty International has
called for the release of prisoners of conscience, including the former foreign
minister, Haile Woldetensae, and an end to torture. Hundreds of people have
simply disappeared in recent years.
The ruling People’s Fron for Democracy and Justice has a political monopoly,
and it has failed to conduct nationwide elections since it took power. The
opposition has effectively been forced into exile. *The main umbrella grouping
is the Eritrean National Alliance, which has support in Ethiopia, Sudan and
Yemen, as well as Europe and North America. Some veterans of the liberation war
have also regrouped as Eritrean Popular Movement. The Eritrean Democratic Party
was put together in Germany in 2004. The Africa Report (Volume #1, May 2005)
EritreaDaily Note: The Africa
Report (Volume #1, May 2005) was prepared by “The Commission for Africa” that was
launched by the British Prime Minister Tony Blair in February 2004 and whose
handpicked 17 members include Ethiopia’s PM Meles Zenawi. The report's hostile
attitude towards Eritrea is, therefore, understandable.
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Editor's Note: *Keep in mind it is a 2004 Report with predictions for 2005. In
March 2005 Eritrean National Alliance was dissolved and in its place a much
bigger and all-inclusive Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA) was formed. Issayas
Afewerki is trying to stay one step ahead of the Opposition by creating an
Opposition within the Opposition whose aim is to oppose the Opposition and weaken
it. Also in early 2005, Eritrea and Yemen, we were told, kissed and made up.
This is hard to believe, though, since Yemen was a victim of dictator Issayas’s
unprovoked aggression. It would be difficult for Yemen to easily brush aside
the past. It looks more like reconciliation from the neck up (not from the
heart). As the saying goes, once bit twice shy.
