Eritrea/Ethiopia: Why
fighting talk could lead to all-out hostilities
03 May 2005, EDnews- Eritrea and Ethiopia have moved
troops to the border and are at the brink of a return to war, writes Martin
Kimani, Lloyds List.
ON April 12,
Eritrean President Isayas Afewerki stated that war with Ethiopia was imminent
when he spoke at a ruling party PFDJ meeting.
He added that
the 2005-2006 national budget would be designed with war in mind. The bone of
contention is that Ethiopia refuses to recognise the ruling of an international
commission on the border dispute that led to the May 1998-December 2000 war.
At least 70,000
were killed, and the commission in 2002 ruled that the Ethiopian-administered
town of Badme belonged to Eritrea. Adding fuel to the fire, four Ethiopians
were killed on and April 9 and April 11 by Eritrean militia inside the UN
buffer zone separating the countries.
Though it may
have been nothing more than a rustling incident, it stoked the appetite for war
as Eritrea claimed that those killed were official Ethiopian infiltrators.
Large Eritrean
military convoys are being moved to Assab in south-eastern Eritrea and the
Eritrean Foreign Minister was in Moscow on April 14 to iron out a deal for
Russian arms.
Ethiopia has
also increased troop numbers from 60,000 to 90,000, stationing most within 40
km of the frontier, close to Badme.
UN peacekeepers
in the 25 km buffer zone have started departing to avoid being caught in
anticipated crossfire. It will only take a minor spark for war to commence.
This is what happened in May 1998 when Ethiopian troops fired at a routine
Eritrean patrol, inviting a revenge attack that launched the war.
Badme will be a
flashpoint, as will other towns such as Zalambessa.
The giant $224m
Tekeze dam in northern Ethiopia, being built by the Chinese government, is
within range of Eritrean artillery and is a vulnerable target. Assab, the
Eritrean port and historically Ethiopia's sole outlet to the sea before the
last war forced it to move cargo through Djibouti, will also be a strategic
target.
Relations
between these two countries are rarely mediated effectively by third parties.
At best, the
outlook is for scattered border clashes during 2005.
At worst, there
is potential for a return to all-out war, with thousands of casualties and the
cessation of normal economic and political activity in both countries.
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