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SECURITY COUNCIL EXTENDS MISSION IN ERITREA, ETHIOPIA UNTIL 15 SEPTEMBER UNANIMOUSLY ADOPTING RESOLUTION 1531 (2004) 12 Mar 2004
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Progress report of the Secretary-General on Ethiopia and Eritrea  
5 March 2004  pdf
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REQUEST TO RESPECT UN/INTERNATIONAL STANDARD FOR NAMING/LISTING OF MEMBER STATES
Open letter to Kofi Annan
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Plotical ultimatum imperative to end Ethiopia's persistent defiance
25 Jan 2004

The Daily News

 

 

Eritrea food security: Planting lags behind; crops falter

 

FEWS Eritrea Food Security Update 17 Jun 2004

30 June 2004, FEWS

Overview
The azmera rains, which normally occur between March and May, were near normal to below normal, with erratic distribution and moisture stress disrupting the planting and development of long cycle crops.

The June-September seasonal forecast calls for near to below normal rainfall in most of the kremti rain dependent areas of Eritrea. The food aid balance at the end of May stands at 88,350 MT and will last until the end of September at the current rate of distribution. Recent nutritional assessments found that the prevalence of acute malnutrition is medium in Maekel (9.3 percent), high in urban Southern Red Sea (3.1 percent) and very high in rural Southern Red Sea (23.5 percent).

Conditions improved in April, with near normal rainfall recorded in most stations and above normal rainfall in a few. Rainfall occurred in Debub and Maekel zones, where this season is most important for crop production, and in some parts of Northern and Southern Red Sea zones, where rainfall is critical for improving pasture and underground water reservoirs. After the first dekad of May, the rains began to taper off, with insignificant amounts recorded in most parts of Eritrea. A few stations in Zoba Debub, Maekel, Northern Red Sea and Anseba zones reported rainfall, but all were below the long-term average. Asmara, Ghinda, Senafe and Keren recorded only 44 percent, 40 percent, 21 percent and 40 percent of their normal amounts, respectively. In general, May rainfall levels were regarded as below normal.

1. NATIONAL TRENDS

1.1 Azmera rains were near normal to below normal.

The azmera rains, which normally fall between March and May, are over. Based on ground reports and satellite data, the rains' performance this season was normal to below normal, with better rain during the first and last dekad of April, and dry periods in March and May.

Azmera season tends to fall only in the highlands and parts of the adjoining eastern escarpments. On average, rains typically fall five to seven days per month during this season.

There were very few reports of rain in March. Compared to the long-term average, rainfall was below normal. Mendefera and Senafe received only 19 percent and 36 percent of normal amounts, respectively.

 

Table 2: Cumulative rains as recorded in field stations: March-May

March

April

May

Source: Eritrean Metrological Service

 

Based on the RFE imagery analysis, the cumulative rainfall for most sub-zones where azmera rains are important for crop or livestock production was near normal to below normal. The main contribution to the total amount comes from the rains recorded in the first and third dekads of April.

2. LOCAL CONDITIONS

2.1 Sporadic rains in April and May improved pasture in Southern Red Sea Zone; below normal rainfall in May in Debub and Maekel Zones hindered planting

As indicated above, the azmera rains were generally below normal, falling disproportionately during two dekads of the season, and as a result, hindering the development of long -- cycle crops. These crops are usually planted in highland areas of Maekel and Debub zones during the azmera rains and develop with the following kremti rains.

Around 50,000 ha have been ploughed in Debub and Maekel zones so far. This land should have been planted with long-cycle crops during the azmera season, but only 16 percent of this area has been planted so far (see Figure 1). Field surveys revealed that what was planted has not developed well due to moisture stress in May. The recovery of dry planted and long cycle crops, such as sorghum and finger millet, depends on a good start to the June rains. Short cycle crops such as barley, wheat, and some varieties of taff are planted at the onset of the main rainy season (see Table 1). A significant part of the potentially cultivable land has been prepared for the coming rains, which are expected to start in June and continue through September.

 

One of the possible reasons that planting has lagged behind preparation is that out of the total seed requirement (which does not include farmers' own reserve seeds) of around 7,000 MT for both the azmera and kremti seasons, only 2,664 MT (38 percent) has been pledged by aid organizations. Of this, only around 30 percent (800 MT) has been procured and supplied so far. The procurement and supply process continues, but since the planting time for highland varieties of sorghum and finger millet is already over, distributions from here on out will come too late to be of use. It is recommended that aid agencies shift their focus and resources to the procurement of short cycle seed varieties, such as wheat, barley and taff, which are normally planted at the onset of the kremti rain (see Table 1.)

Pasture and browse conditions have improved in Southern Red Sea (SRS) and some parts of Northern Red Sea (NRS) Zone due to the sporadic rains in April and May, with particular improvements seen the sub-zone Ara'eta and the surrounding areas of SRS zone. The body conditions of goats and sheep appear to be good.

2.2 Support for fishing activities starting to pay off

With the support of the Ministry of Fisheries through its FAO-funded 'Development of the Artisanal Fisheries Sector' project, fishermen along the Asseb-Teo coastal areas in the SRS Zone have benefited from sales of anchovies. The general objective of the FAO-funded project is to assist the Government of Eritrea to develop the fishery industry in Teo-Assab regions by targeting more species and processing and marketing the fish. The identification of under utilized marine resources, identification of suitable fishing gear and fishing methods and provision of training to the fishermen are among the specific objectives that are indicated in the project document. The fishermen are selling sun-dried anchovies at a cost of 8 Nacfa/kg. So far, the dried fish is supplied to the feed processing plants to be used as ingredients for animal feed. In the future, the processed dried fish will be further refined and used for human and animal consumption.

3. SEASONAL FORECAST

According to the Nairobi-based Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) June-September forecast, while the most probable outlook is for normal rainfall in the kremti-dependent areas of Gash Barka, Debub, Anseba and Northern Red Sea Zones of Eritrea, there is a higher chance for below-normal rainfall than above normal rains in these areas. On the other hand, there is an increased likelihood for near to above normal rainfall in Southern Red Sea (SRS) Zone see Figure 2¹).

 

4. MARKET CONDITIONS

4.1 Sorghum prices remain stable in Asmara and Mendefera, but increase in Keren and Mendefera

White sorghum prices in Asmara, while higher than at the same time last year, remained stable and are at the same level they have been since the beginning of this year. Fluctuations in Keren and Mendefera markets are presented in Figure 3.

The Eritrean Grain Board (EGB) has started selling sorghum to the public through various distribution centres at subsidized prices. The EGB has also promised to continue distribution of other food items such as maize, finger millet and oil in all zones under the objective of lowering and stabilizing market prices.

 

Due to the relatively stable sorghum and livestock prices, livestock terms of trade (TOT) for goats and sheep remain unchanged in Asmara since April.

5. HEALTH STATUS AND FOOD AID DELIVERIES

5.1. Survey finds medium to high Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates in Maekel and Southern Red Sea Zones.

Nutrition surveys were undertaken in March by the Ministry of Health (MoH), in collaboration with various NGOs and UN agencies in Maekel and Southern Red Sea zones. The surveys covered both rural and urban areas in the SRS zone, while only the rural areas were surveyed in Maekel Zone. The main objective of the surveys was to determine the level of acute malnutrition among children and their mothers.

The report concluded that the prevalence of acute malnutrition was moderate in Maekel (9.3 percent), high in urban SRS (13.1 percent) and very high in rural SRS (23.5 percent), particularly among the inland stratum.

Table 3: Prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition among children (6-59 months): March 2004

Note: Global Includes children <-2zscore (including those <3z-score) and children with oedema even if they are >-2 zscore
Source: Nutritional Survey report (UNICEF, MoH, WFP, Care, CRS, Concern, DIA, Mercy Corps)

By international benchmarks, the prevalence of chronic under nutrition among mothers was found to be high (33.0 percent) in Maekel and very high (53.8 percent) in SRS zone. However, severe under-nutrition ranges from 4 percent (low) in Maekel and SRS urban to 22.9 percent (high) in SRS inland stratum.

Although the nutritional status of children in Maekel seems better than in other zones of Eritrea, the survey recommended monitoring the situation (for example through community based Growth Monitoring and Promotion) in order to look for signals that might indicate changes. As the current prevalence of acute malnutrition is below 10 percent, no direct food interventions are suggested. In addition, it is recommended that in the rural SRS zone, food aid distribution should be continued and regularly secured. The frequency of Supplementary Feeding Program rations, especially in more remote areas, needs to be increased, and should reach children under five and all pregnant and lactating women.

Table 4: Prevalence of wasting, stunting and underweight children 6-59 months

Note: Wasting does not include oedema
Source: Nutritional Survey report (UNICEF, MoH, Care, CRS, Concern, DIA, Mercy Corps), March 2004

5.2 The end-of-May stock at the ERREC warehouse will last until September

According to the Eritrean Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (ERREC), the food aid balance at the end of May, at 88,350 MT, was 14 percent higher than it was at the end of April. This is due to the arrival of 37,473 MT in April, of which 20,767 MT was distributed, adding 16,706 MT to the total stock (see Table 5). Assuming the current rate of distribution remains constant, there is enough food aid in country to last through the end of September.

Table 5.ERREC Stock Balance Report(in MT), May 2004

Source: ERREC

So far, current pledges and carryover stocks from January to May 2004 amount to 228,881 MT, including January-May distributions, representing around 52 percent of the estimated annual needs (443,000 MT), according to the ERREC's humanitarian update report of June 11.

 

The number of food aid beneficiaries increased from 1.51 million in April to 1.66 million in May. As depicted in Figure 5, although May's beneficiary number (1.6 million MT) is higher than in any of the past five months, the amount of food distributed in May was less than the previous months, implying that the ERREC is still trying to reach more people by reducing the ration size. The average ration size in May was 12.5 kg compared to April's 15.1 kg average.

5.3 Food Security outlook

The recovery of the agricultural sector will depend on the kremti rainfall along with agricultural input availability and use and the timing of planting. It is crucial that the MoA, NGOs, UN agencies involved in agricultural development activities provide appropriate and timely support this season in order to improve agricultural productivity so that food aid needs can be reduced next year. Timely planting, timely supply and use of agricultural inputs, better surveillance and pest-specific crop protection measures are some of the areas that have to be considered in promoting better agricultural practices. More attention needs to be given specifically in early forecast and control mechanisms in order to protect against major pests such as grasshopper and Chafer beetle, which have consistently threatened agricultural production in the past few years.

According to the ERREC, the coming few months are the most critical labor input time, and farmers require sufficient food assistance in order to engage effectively in the intensive farming activities. Hence, it is crucial that the donor community take measures to ensure the continued supply of relief food now.

Note:

¹ The numbers in each zone indicate the probabilities (chances of occurrences) of rainfall in each of the three categories, above normal, near normal, and below normal. The top number indicates the probability of rainfall occurring in the above normal category; the middle number is for the near normal and the bottom number for the below normal category.

All maps show internal and external borders that are approximations and do not represent any legal or official status.

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